Water AlliesTier 2
at 0907(日)永和豬豬玩具_下午1點_店冠賽
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-5-2
overall winrate
45.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
44.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1252
· median 1252
· range 1246–1259
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1205
Q3 1402
1539
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 28.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.9% | -5.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
